Quick update: new poll confirms the rise of far-right polemist Éric Zemmour

A new poll by Odoxa for the Nouvel Obs just dropped and it’s a doozy. You can read all about it here (in French).

It’s a big and detailed poll: sample of 3010 voters, 2663 registered and 1856 certain to go vote. Margin of error is thus small.

The big take away: far-right celebrity polemist Éric Zemmour continues his rise. He is now at 16%, right behind Marine Le Pen at 18% while Macron remains far ahead at 25% to 26%.

Zemmour’s rise is quashing the two leading right-of-center potential candidates: Xavier Bertrand is at 13% while Valérie Pécresse is at 8.5%. Zemmour is gathering steam among a large portion of les Républicains. His supporters appear to be upper class and older.

The big question is whether Zemmour will overtake Le Pen, and will it be a flash in the pan or a more durable thing.

On the left, Mélenchon is ahead at 9%, with ecologist candidate Yannick Jadot right behind at 6.5%. Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, is stuck under 5%. Too many cooks in the kitchen.

In the second round Macron wins handily, but by lower margins than in 2017: 58% vs 42% to Le Pen (62% vs Zemmour, a much more unlikely duel).

Important to note that Zemmour has not in fact formally announced that he is running. But unless something really bad comes up, he is definitely running. There are already people making fundraising calls on his behalf.

- M.