Polling update 11/11: Zemmour losing steam
Latest poll shows declining numbers for the far right provocateur
The main takeaway is that far-right polemicist Éric Zemmour seems to be falling back down to Earth while Marine Le Pen is regaining her lead on the Right. While the hypothesis below shows Xavier Bertrand as LR’s nominee, the end-results are roughly similar when testing Valérie Pécresse or Michel Barnier. Other potential LR candidates poll lower than Bertrand, and Marine Le Pen accedes to the runoff against the immovable Macron.
Perhaps Zemmour-curious voters are getting a bit weary of his stunts and provocations. He is still attracting a good chunk of both Le Pen’s and LR’s supporters, but he seems to have reached a plateau, if not stalled. An intriguing fact is that nobody has heard of any efforts on the part of the Zemmour organization to collect the necessary 500 signatures to appear on the ballot. As time passes it will get increasingly difficult to convince both elected politicians and local mayors to sign on, especially if the Zemmour rocket fails to achieve escape velocity.
Of note: despite a series of high-profile interviews and events in the past two weeks, Anne Hidalgo is stuck at or below 5%. This is particularly bad, not just for purely electoral reasons but also because per the rules of public financing of elections, if you score below 5% your campaign expenses are not reimbursed by the State. Being stuck at that level will make it extremely difficult and expensive for the Socialist Party to borrow the money to campaign, since the risk is high that the candidate will not reach the legal threshold for full reimbursement.
Another underappreciated dynamic: Michel Barnier is rising fast, and seems to be the favorite of LR dues-paying party members (who will vote to designate LR’s nominee.) Former President François Hollande, a great connaisseur of intra-party fights, sees Barnier as the favorite. He said of Barnier that he had the look of a “prince charmant des maisons de retraite” (“prince charming of old folks’ homes.”) Hollande may have been a useless President but he still is the undisputed king of the put-down.
À la prochaine ! — M.